CHINA LOCALIZATION SCOREBOARD
The qualification ladder
17 TRACKED CLIMBS · 9 AT SHIPPING OR BEYOND
Every chokepoint erodes the same way: a challenger gets validated, designated, then ships, then dominates. This board tracks where each climb stands. Compute is the inverted node — there the ladder reads Chinese OEM demand localizing away from the US incumbent.
01 · ACTUATION
TESLA OPTIMUS + CHINA OEMS ·30–40% China share (JPM); AgiBot/UBTech customer; Tesla-validated — 'sole supplier' claim single-sourced.
OPTIMUS · UNITREE ·Reported supplying both programs; Suzhou plant targets ~500k units/yr in 2026.
OPTIMUS HIGH-TORQUE JOINTS ·Described as main inverted-screw supplier; humanoid revenue ~30% of Q1'25 mix.
The full ladder across sensing, compute, and power — including the F/T validation thread and the inverted compute node.
THE REVERSE CLIMB
One layer runs the other way: in materials the West is the challenger, building capacity against China's ~90% refining hold.
Mine-to-magnet; ~3,000 MT/yr committed, ~60,000 t/yr facility targeted; DoD/GM/Apple offtakes.
The operating US sintered maker; $215M Series C Jan'26; GM/ABB supply deals.
Texas plant — first Western Dy/Tb route; slipped once, execution is the story.
13 ULVAC machines, ~10,000 t/yr target. [VERIFY]
Market intelligence, not financial advice. Stages marked ⚠ rest on single-sourced reporting — see the [VERIFY] queue.