CATALYST CALENDAR
What re-prices the map
15 TRACKED · 2 COMPLEX-MOVING
The catalyst calendar for the chokepoint map: hard policy dates, commissioning windows, IPO processes, and the recurring prints each node re-rates on. Extracted from the intelligence files; dates carry the same [VERIFY] discipline as everything else here.
DATED & WINDOWED
China export-control escalation suspension expires
The October 2025 escalation (extraterritorial 0.1%-Chinese-content rule, more elements, processing tech) was suspended after the Busan détente — a pause, not a repeal. Re-escalation spikes the Western escape-valve names; a durable extension de-rates them. The hard planning horizon for the whole materials layer.
Evolution Metals: 13 ULVAC sintered-magnet machines installed
Target ~10,000 t/yr including ~6,000 t/yr high-performance grades — one of the largest announced Western sintered-capacity additions, if it commissions on schedule. [VERIFY]
Hangzhou XJ / Xinjian Transmission IPO process
CSRC guidance filed 9 Jan 2026 (CITIC sponsor). The best-positioned roller-screw name is pre-IPO with a 1M-units/yr humanoid line — the listing itself is the catalyst, and a leading indicator for the whole linear-actuation node.
The full forward book — commissioning windows, IPO processes, capacity ramps — each tagged to its instruments and file.
RECURRING PRINTS
The cadence trades: the RoboSense robotics/ADAS mix, the Keli/Tesla ladder, per-generation Optimus BOM reads.
Market intelligence, not financial advice.